Data users want to understand how official data are generated, and statistical agencies want to explain their methodologies. But sometimes the two groups seem to speak different languages. I saw an example in a recent article in Journal of Finance by Tim Kroencke, “Asset Pricing without Garbage” (HT: Jonathan Parker). Kroencke is analyzing a well-known model …
Read More Are national economic statistics “filtered”?
On Friday, BEA released the 2017 Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts. The U.S. national accounts data for the last three years, including GDP, were revised. At the level of total GDP, the revisions were small and the overall picture of economic activity isn’t a lot different from what we previously understood. …
Read More 2017 Annual Update of BEA’s National Income and Product Accounts
On May 23, the administration released the President’s budget for fiscal year 2018. We now have enough details about the proposed budgets for statistics to start filling in detailed information about cuts. The Census Bureau is by far the largest of the U.S. statistical agencies. The budget proposes an increase for the Census Bureau of …
Read More Why I’m concerned about the Census Bureau’s budget
One of the themes of this blog is improving the national statistics through research on measurement issues. Like other kinds of research, you’ll find it presented at conferences and ultimately published in working papers, journals, and books. While you may occasionally find research on national statistics in any journal or conference in the fields of …
Read More Where to Find Research on National Statistics
At 8:30 this morning, BEA released the December personal income and outlays report, and we learned that personal income increased 0.3 percent and real consumer spending (or personal consumption expenditures (PCE)) increased 0.3 percent in the final month of 2016. These estimates were prominently reported by the news media. Less than a half hour later, …
Read More Statistics for Forecasters: BEA’s Underlying and Key Source Data
As the new Trump administration assumes control of the federal government, there’s uncertainty about how well it will maintain the integrity of official statistics. Can we be assured that the government will protect the confidentiality of the data it collects from us for statistical purposes? Can we be assured that the reported statistics will be prepared independently and …
Read More Confidential Statistical Data Are Still Secure